20th April, 2012 What are the odds?

The Grand National brought it's usual rush of controversy after two horses had to be destroyed following falls in the race. I was struck how one owner and one jockey seemed to filled with regret after their horses were killed. Both said something along the lines that they never imagined that this would be the outcome. Whilst I have sympathy for all of the connections of these no doubt loved horses, I don't really understand how they couldn't have foreseen it since the odds of having your horse killed appear to be at least twice as likely as winning the race. Two horses were killed in the same race last year, and despite the efforts to make the course safer, lower jumps and just as many horses mean that the chances of a horse were being killed were just as great.

This disconnection fascinates me, since in law we were taught about foreseeability as the test of whether  someone is liable for the damage that they cause.

Research has shown that at least one in three, and as many as two in three, horses that are kept in a stable for any significant period of time, as many leisure horses are, are likely to have gastric ulceration. Why do people think that this would not include their horse? You can certainly lessen the odds by feeding ad lib hay at floor level.

I fully accept that there are some horses that do not thrive so well if turned out full time, but it's a balancing act. Chancer is on this line. Having got through the winter beautifully, he started to lose weight in February and has only just started to look right again. He's not helped by the fact that he has lost a lot of muscle having done no work since he started treatment for his sarcoids. I shall have to take a hard look at whether he should be kept in next winter or how I can arrest this drop in weight before it starts in February.